Is It Possible To Be Good At Blackjack
If there’s one thing everybody knows about gambling it’s that the house always wins. And while it is true that casinos always make a profit, there are a number of ways to cheat the system – some of which are actually perfectly legal.
Is Match the Dealer a Good Blackjack Betting Strategy? “Match the Dealer” is a type of a blackjack side bet that players can make to make more money. It paves the way for an exciting blackjack betting strategy, but it also comes with a view of pitfalls that would make you want to avoid it. This is a great strategy that any good Blackjack player probably has memorized, but I'm going to teach a slightly simplified version of that. Rather than looking at all 10 possible dealer up cards, I'm going to break them into just two types; a high card and a low card. A low card is a two through a six and a high card has a seven through an ace. This sounds like a pretty good reason to be a professional blackjack player. But this doesn’t show the entire picture. In order for your average bet to be $100 per hand, you have to make many bets of $20 to $50 a hand when the count isn’t in your favor, and then make bets of $400 or higher when the count is in your favor. Blackjack has a low house edge when the rules are good, and you can use strategy to keep the edge as low as possible. It’s even possible to make money playing blackjack if you can count cards. I’ve also included a few advanced advantage plays for you to explore.
Half a century ago, mathematician Edward Thorp published a groundbreaking book outlining how a player could use “card counting” to get an advantage in the game Blackjack by keeping track of the cards left in a deck. Ever since, casinos have been trying to eradicate card counting while card counters are getting increasingly skilled at not getting caught. So is it possible to outplay casinos today? And what will it be like in the future?
Casinos are businesses and operate by building in a margin – often referred to as the house edge. If you play roulette and bet on a single number you will be paid at odds of 35-1 when the true odds are 36-1 in Europe and 37-1 in the US. The fact that you are receiving less than the true odds is the house edge and explains why casinos make money in the long term. Of course, some people have to win, otherwise casinos would cease to exist.
Advantage players
What casinos don’t like are “advantage players” – people seeking to have an edge over the house. Sometimes this involves cheating and/or illegal activities ranging from past posting (making a bet after the time when no more bets are to be taken) to collaborating at the poker table and using a computer to help make decisions.
Card counting, however, is legal. In Blackjack, the aim of the player is to achieve a hand of cards whose points add up nearer to 21 than the dealer’s hand, but without exceeding 21. Many hands are played from the same deck of cards, so what happens in one hand will influence what happens in future hands. As an example, if a ten has been played from the pack then it cannot appear in the next hand. This is different from other games, such as roulette, where the outcome of one spin has no effect on the next spin.
Card counting is based on the fact that a large proportion of high cards (such as tens, jacks, queens and kings, which are all worth ten points) left in the unplayed deck statistically improves the player’s chances. This is because a player can decide not to draw a new card to a hand such as 16, but the casino is forced to, as it follows strict rules. If there are a high proportion of high cards left in the unplayed deck of cards, the dealer has more chance of busting (going over 21). This can be combined with “basic strategy” – developed from computer simulations of millions of blackjack hands – which tells the player the best action to take for each possible card combination.
Combining card counting and basic strategy can help a player convert the (long term) house edge from 2.7%, in favour of the casino, to about a 1% advantage to the player. Of course, once you have this advantage you can increase your bet.
Is It Possible To Be Good At Blackjack Card Game
To give a simple example, if you were playing basic strategy and were dealt a ten and a six, and the dealer had a three showing (one of the dealers cards is visible to the player), you would stand (not take another card) as you hope that the dealer would draw a ten and bust. If you were card counting, and you knew that more low cards had been played, you might decide to increase your stake at this point.
Evolving battle
Casinos have introduced a number of measures to deter card counting. These include spotting those doing it and simply banning them from playing, or even from entering the casino. Another approach is to increase the number of decks from one to (typically) six, or even eight. Some casinos also shuffle the cards after only about 75% have been played or shuffle them constantly using automatic shufflers.
You might wonder why casinos don’t simply withdraw blackjack. Well, it remains a popular game, and one that is still profitable. There are also many would-be card counters who are not actually that good at it, and they provide income to the casinos.
Many blackjack players have fought back against such measures, arguing that casinos should allow gamblers to use skill when playing the game. As a card counter operating on their own is relatively easy to spot (intense concentration, increasing bets and so on), a team of students from MIT showed it could successfully be done in teams. The idea is that somebody else counts the cards – they may not even be sitting at the table. When the count reaches an agreed value, they signal to another player, who joins the table to start betting. This is a lot more difficult to detect but casinos may stop players joining the game until after a shuffle to combat such a strategy.
Other players have used shuffle tracking, where blocks of cards are tracked so that you have some idea when they will appear. If you are given the option to cut the pack, you try and cut the pack near where you think the block of cards you are tracking is so that you can bet accordingly. A variant on this is to track aces as, if you know when one is likely to appear, you have a distinct advantage over the casino.
It’s been 50 years since Thorp’s book, and it is unlikely that the war of wills between blackjack players and casinos will end any time soon. Some of our work has investigated how artificial neural networks (simple models of the human brain) could help evolve blackjack strategies. This was done by playing thousands of blackjack hands and the computer learning what to do in any given situation, getting better each time. There is a lot of scope to see if automated computer programs could learn even more sophisticated strategies.
It’s mathematically impossible for either the house or the player to always win at the game of blackjack if both are playing a perfect game. It also comes down to how you interpret the phrase “always win.”
Is it possible to win every hand in blackjack without cheating? No, not even if the other player makes the worst choice on every hand (hitting on anything other than a 21). If both players draw 21, the push negates any win or loss.
By that reasoning alone, a cheater would have to control the deal to prevent the other player from ever drawing a blackjack.
For the sake of reasonable discussion, I’ll interpret “always win” to mean “leave the table with more money than you took in.” I still can’t offer any guarantees, but the following strategies improve your chances of always leaving the table a winner.
1 – Set a Hard Limit on Earnings
Although card counting doesn’t perform the magic people expect, as you become more experienced at counting cards you should see some improvement in your win/loss ratios. This is why, despite all the precautions they take, casinos still pay attention to card counters.
The basic idea in good gambling practice is to only risk losing money you don’t mind losing. If you really want to get ahead, then your thinking should become more conservative as you accumulate more money.
Rather than change your playing strategy, which is why you’re ahead, just call it quits before you’ve won too much.
How much is too much? If the pit boss is paying unusual attention to your table, that could be a sign you should take a break.
2 – Practice Every Chance You Get
Some of the best blackjack experts in the world say they ran through memory exercises for months before taking on the Vegas casinos.
You need to memorize two things to be successful in blackjack—the rules of the game (including table rules) and the best blackjack strategies for each card you’re dealt.
The basic rules of the game are easy to learn. Casinos add their own rules to limit players’ chances of success or to limit their winnings. The change from 3:2 payouts to 6:5 payouts is an example of how casinos are limiting winnings.
You need to react instinctively to the cards on the table. You need to know what you can do and what you should do in every situation.
You won’t get there by losing your money for months or years on end.
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3 – Pick Your Tables Carefully
Because casinos have changed many of the old school blackjack rules, standard advice that people followed 10, 15, or 20 years ago doesn’t always apply any more. The old classic blackjack strategy books were great resources in their days, but the world has changed.
Choosing the best blackjack table may be easy. You could walk into a casino that still offers the basic game. You may have to visit a few casinos in your area to find the best game.
Because finding a good table is so hard, some players now prefer playing online blackjack games. They can choose from a variety of casinos, and because of the competition, online casinos offer a lot of different blackjack variations.
When you know the table rules you want to play by, they become part of your strategy as much as part of the house’s strategy.
4 – Bet in Consistent Patterns
Is It Possible To Be Good At Blackjack Games
Standard card counting technique says you should increase your bets when the deck is favorable. Because everyone shares this advice in books, video tutorials, and articles, it’s not a secret to the casinos.
Varying your bets when the cards are favorable may lead to the unfavorable reaction by the casino—they shuffle the cards.
Although many card counters still swear by the practice, they concede it’s much harder to win this way than in years past. The solo player is less likely to win much money over all than a team.
Instead of trying to win as much as a team wins, be more consistent in your betting. A little bit of subtlety in your patterns may give you the psychological boost you need to keep playing.
How can you be consistent and subtle?
5 – Only Play When the Crowd Is Small
This is more a matter of personal preference. But having spent some time at the blackjack tables, I find it disruptive when people constantly come and go.
That is the exact reason why I stopped trying to count cards.
If you want to socialize, then chat away if the other players are willing to do that. But if your goal is to win, then treat the game like it’s your job. Do the work when you have the fewest distractions.
If you’re a regular high roller, you might be able to request a private table. And this is another reason why some people prefer to play online blackjack over a game in a casino. Whether it’s a live dealer table or a computer game, if you have the table to yourself, you can play without distractions.
6 – Ignore the Extras in the Game
You might be tempted to play a progressive blackjack game or to take insurance. I’ve done both, but in the long run, these game options just suck your money away from you.
The casino throws in extra options to make the game more interesting, but they’re also after your money.
Surrendering is a borderline practice. If you have the option of surrendering, some experts recommend you only do this when the cards are clearly against you.
Some casinos require late surrender, meaning you must wait for the dealer to check for a blackjack in her hand. Some games allow early surrender where you can forfeit based on the cards you see in your hand and the dealer’s face card.
Some surrender articles speak in terms of probabilities.
Your decision to surrender preserves capital. You should take into consideration what the face up cards show, what the table’s rule for dealer stands is (soft 17 or not), and the number of decks in the shoe (4 to 8).
Players usually surrender on a hard 16 if the dealer shows a 9, 10, or ace. They usually surrender on a hard 15 if the dealer shows a 10 or ace.
Some players criticize a player who surrenders. It’s your decision, not theirs.
Conclusion
As a player you want to enjoy what you’re doing even if you’re there to win. It’s hard to concentrate when you feel like every hand is against you. The psychological side of the game is important.
It’s just like going to work every morning, do you love your job or not?
Unless you’re there as part of a team, you don’t have to keep playing if the game isn’t fun anymore. Choosing to play only when you have a good time builds your confidence.
Confidence doesn’t contribute directly to winning, but you’re more likely to trust your choices when you’re confident. Winning makes you confident but winning can be the result of random chance.
Your job begins before you make the first bet. Study the rules, practice good strategy, and set a goal of achieving perfect play through instinct and experience.
Whether you count cards or not, the better you play the game, the more likely you’ll leave the table a winner.